AGP Executive Report

Strait of Hormuz Standoff: Iran’s UN envoy Amir Saeid Iravani said Tehran will no longer be bound by the MoU if Washington keeps violating it, as the U.S. presses for a public pledge that the Strait is open and ships won’t be attacked. Oman Mediation: Iran’s top diplomat Abbas Araghchi met Oman’s foreign minister in Muscat to discuss safe passage mechanisms for Hormuz under the Islamabad MoU, with Oman and Iran agreeing to keep technical and political talks going. Revenge Escalation: Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowed “certain” vengeance for his father’s killing, while Trump warned of “1000 missiles locked and loaded” and threatened to “completely decimate” Iran if he’s assassinated. Regional Fallout: Iran’s IRGC said it struck U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain after U.S. airstrikes, as Israel-linked claims of an assassination plot added fuel to the crisis. Nuclear Watch: Satellite images cited by CNN suggest Iran may be rebuilding suspected nuclear facilities at Parchin and Pickaxe Mountain, raising new doubts over any nuclear track. Markets & Daily Life: The Hormuz fight is also hitting costs, with reports of higher fuel and fertilizer prices pressuring farmers and energy markets. Human Angle: Iran’s national team won the IMSC 2026 in China, adding a rare bright spot amid the war news.

Strait of Hormuz Crisis: The U.S. and Iran trade blame as Washington demands Tehran publicly reopen the Strait of Hormuz and stop attacks on commercial ships, after U.S. strikes hit dozens of targets and damaged tankers following attacks on vessels near Oman; Iran says it wants “mutual compliance” and disputes U.S. violations of the June MoU. Escalation and Retaliation: Iran’s IRGC and army say they struck U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain with missiles and drones after U.S. bombardments, while the Pentagon says it hit more than 170 Iranian military targets this week. Diplomacy Under Pressure: Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi arrives in Oman for talks on maritime procedures and safe passage, as U.S. officials say negotiations continue despite Trump declaring the ceasefire “over.” Assassination Threat Row: Trump warns of “1,000 missiles locked and loaded” and “completely decimate” Iran if Tehran attempts to assassinate him, amid reports of renewed calls for his death during Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s funeral. Nuclear Questions: Satellite imagery reports suggest Iran may be rebuilding parts of nuclear-related sites, raising new doubts about MoU “status quo” commitments. Human Toll: Iran’s health ministry says U.S. strikes across six cities killed 132 people and injured others, as the Gulf standoff keeps oil and shipping fears high.

Strait of Hormuz Standoff: The US and Iran traded fresh blows again after Trump declared the June ceasefire “OVER,” with Washington demanding Tehran publicly confirm the strait is open and ships won’t be attacked—while Iran points to an “errant” hardline faction and warns of “reciprocal action.” Diplomacy Under Pressure: Trump says the US agreed to keep talking, but Qatar mediators are reportedly shuttling to Tehran as both sides try to prevent a wider regional war. Nuclear Tensions: Satellite imagery claims Iran is repairing previously hit nuclear sites, raising new questions about compliance with the MoU. Financial Squeeze: The US added new Iran-related sanctions targeting a key financier tied to Mojtaba Khamenei and other networks. Market Fallout: Renewed fighting rattled energy markets, with gasoline prices rising again as Hormuz traffic slowed and oil volatility returned. Regional Mediation: Pakistan’s PM Sharif urged Iran to preserve “hard-earned” peace after calls with Iran’s president, while UN shipping officials rejected Iran’s push for control over Hormuz traffic. Domestic Shockwaves: As Ayatollah Khamenei was laid to rest in Mashhad, Trump warned he left instructions to strike Iran “at levels” never seen if he’s assassinated, amid reports of an alleged plot.

US-Iran Ceasefire Collapse: Trump declared the Iran truce “over” at the NATO summit in Ankara after IRGC retaliation in the Persian Gulf, with the June MoU effectively unraveling and oil jumping more than 6% as shipping fears return. Strait of Hormuz Tensions: Iran says transit will follow its own rules and claims it blocked foreign tankers from a US-backed route, while the US says strikes target Iran’s ability to hit commercial shipping. Escalating Strikes and Retaliation: The US hit dozens of Iranian targets over consecutive nights, Iran reported attacks near Bushehr and on US-linked bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar, and Jordan said it intercepted missiles. Khamenei Funeral Fallout: Iran buried Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Mashhad after week-long mourning, with Iran and Iraq highlighting unity—while US-Iran talks stayed in limbo amid the funeral and renewed hostilities. Assassination Plot Claims: US media reports citing Israeli intelligence say Iran had a “specific” plan to kill Trump, adding to the hardening rhetoric. Markets and Daily Life: Gas prices rose in the US as the ceasefire ended, while gold and oil swung on inflation and supply worries. Diplomacy Still Alive: Despite the fighting, US officials say technical talks continue and mediators including Qatar and Pakistan push to revive de-escalation.

U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Collapses: President Donald Trump declared the Iran truce “over” at the NATO summit in Ankara after IRGC retaliation and renewed strikes around the Strait of Hormuz, with oil jumping and markets bracing for more escalation. Strait of Hormuz Shipping Shock: Tanker traffic through Hormuz was reported near standstill as both sides traded blows, with Washington saying it hit about 90 targets to protect commercial navigation while Tehran warned the strait would reopen only under “Iranian arrangements.” Gulf Retaliation Widens: Iran said it struck U.S. military infrastructure in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Jordan after U.S. attacks, while Jordan reported missile interceptions and the UAE urged Gulf unity. Iranian Funeral Amid War Fears: Iran buried late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Mashhad as millions gathered, even as reports of explosions near Bushehr and other southern areas raised fears of a return to full-scale conflict. Economic Fallout: Gas and mortgage-rate pressures returned as oil volatility fed inflation worries, while investors largely looked past the headlines to AI-led stock moves. Human Rights Pressure: French lawmakers backed political prisoners sentenced to death in Iran, adding fresh international scrutiny as the conflict escalates.

US-Iran Escalation: The US carried out another round of strikes on Iran, with CENTCOM saying it hit about 90 military targets aimed at limiting Tehran’s ability to threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Retaliation Across the Gulf: Iran’s IRGC said it struck US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain after the new US attacks, while sirens and air-raid alerts sounded again in Bahrain and Kuwait. Civilian Toll Claims: Iran’s Health Ministry said US strikes over two days killed 14 people and injured 78, with 47 still in hospital. Ceasefire in Ruins: Trump said the ceasefire is “over,” warning any further ship attacks would bring “much worse” consequences, as both sides trade blame for violations. Regional Fallout: Iran suspended passenger rail between Tehran and Mashhad after a US strike damaged part of the line, and officials condemned attacks on bridges and other civilian infrastructure as “gross war crimes.” Markets & Energy: Oil prices swung on renewed fears for Hormuz shipping, while global growth outlook concerns resurfaced amid the renewed conflict.

US-Iran Escalation: The US resumed strikes on Iran after President Trump declared the interim ceasefire and the MOU “over,” saying attacks were “retribution” for strikes on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and warning any repeat would “get much worse.” Strait of Hormuz Tensions: CENTCOM said the goal is to “degrade” Iran’s ability to threaten freedom of navigation, while Iran warned it could close the strait and retaliate at a higher ratio. Southern Iran Blasts & Casualties: Iranian state media reported explosions in southern cities including Bandar Abbas and Chabahar and said eight Iranian air and naval personnel were killed in the latest US strikes. Regional Diplomacy: Iran’s FM Abbas Araghchi held talks with Qatar’s leadership as Pakistan and the UK urged restraint and de-escalation. Markets & Energy Shock: Oil jumped sharply—Brent briefly above $80—while stocks slid worldwide as investors priced in higher energy costs and renewed inflation risk. Trump’s Hardline Messaging: Trump called Iran’s leaders “scum,” said he’s Iran’s “number one” assassination target, and claimed the US operation was a “tremendous military success.”

US-Iran Escalation: Trump declared the Iran ceasefire and the June 17 MoU “over” at a NATO summit in Ankara, calling Tehran “scum” and “liars” as Washington and Tehran traded strikes after attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Strikes and Retaliation: The US said it hit more than 80 Iranian targets and revoked a waiver allowing Iran oil sales; Iran said it struck 85 US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait and reported an IRGC naval member killed in a drone attack. Gulf Fallout: Bahrain sounded air-raid sirens and Kuwait condemned the “latest Iranian aggression,” while the EU warned the cycle of exchanges is undermining efforts to end the conflict. Aviation and Shipping Risk: EASA extended guidance for airlines to avoid Iran and Iraq airspace until Aug. 31, as EU and Gulf states urged de-escalation. Markets Jump: Oil prices surged 5–6% on renewed war fears, while gold slipped and India’s VIX spiked on the ceasefire collapse. Diplomacy in Limbo: Despite Trump’s remarks, negotiators were said to keep talking—though both sides accuse the other of violating the ceasefire.

Strait of Hormuz Flashpoint: The U.S. revoked a temporary sanctions waiver and oil-sales license for Iran after three tankers were hit in the Strait of Hormuz, then launched “powerful” airstrikes, saying Tehran’s actions were a “clear violation” of the ceasefire and would be met with “heavy costs.” Diplomatic Fallout: Iran rejected Qatar’s accusations, insisting it controls maritime management under the U.S.-Iran memorandum and warning that regional states should follow the agreed framework. Regional Condemnations: Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Jordan all condemned the attacks on their vessels, calling them illegal and a threat to global energy security. Ceasefire Under Strain: The renewed violence threatens the fragile interim deal meant to reopen the strait, while oil prices jumped on the news and markets reacted to fears of wider escalation. Funeral Politics in the Background: As Iran held major mourning ceremonies for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the shipping crisis and U.S. strikes added to a tense atmosphere of defiance and pressure.

Strait of Hormuz Flash: Iran-linked attacks on commercial shipping flared again as a tanker off Oman caught fire after a projectile hit, while reports said the IRGC fired missiles at other vessels—raising fresh fears for oil routes even as a fragile US-Iran ceasefire framework hangs in the balance. Diplomacy Under Pressure: Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi warned that final deal talks won’t start if US threats continue, citing the MoU’s terms, after Trump repeated he’ll “finish the job” if no agreement is reached. Khamenei Funeral, Defiance Theme: Public mourning in Qom and Tehran entered its fourth day, with prayers led by senior clerics and crowds chanting “death to America,” while officials and lawmakers vowed revenge. Nuclear Messaging: The AEOI chief said Iran’s nuclear progress is rooted in guidance from Ayatollah Khamenei, framing the program as long-term state policy. Markets & Fallout: Oil price swings and shipping risk kept Gulf stocks mixed; UK house prices rose slightly as mortgage rates eased. Cyber & Security: An Iran-linked hacking group unveiled new tactics targeting Israeli government and IT networks.

Khamenei Funeral Diplomacy: Iran’s week of mourning for slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei kept drawing huge crowds in Tehran, with his body moved to Qom and then set for Iraq and Mashhad, while Iran’s officials framed the turnout as a message of “revenge” and defiance; Succession Uncertainty: the new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei stayed out of public view, fueling speculation over security fears and consolidation; US-Iran Talks Under Pressure: negotiations entered day 19 as Trump repeated his “deal or finish the job” warning and threatened to cripple Iran’s infrastructure, while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz recovered and oil prices slid back toward pre-war levels; Regional Fallout: Iran’s parliament speaker said peace in Lebanon is impossible without Tehran’s role, and Iran’s Hamas delegation met Iranian officials in Tehran to discuss Gaza; Human Rights Watch: ARTICLE 19 warned human rights are being sidelined in talks, and HANA reported Afghan migrants in Iran face major barriers to civil documents and justice; Economy & Markets: Bank of Canada said the war hurt business confidence and drove inflation expectations, while oil and currency moves reflected shifting risk.

Khamenei Funeral in Tehran: Millions of mourners filled central Tehran as Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s coffin and those of slain family members moved through the city in a 10–12 hour procession, with chants calling for the death of U.S. President Donald Trump and slogans of revenge; authorities shut streets and airspace to manage crowds, while three of Khamenei’s sons appeared publicly and successor Mojtaba Khamenei stayed absent. US-Iran Talks on Hold: Diplomacy with Washington remains paused during the funeral period, with the next steps expected after burial as Hormuz shipping and asset unfreezing stay key sticking points. Hormuz Fee Fight: Iran continues to warn against foreign military “parades” in the Strait of Hormuz while pushing a “service fee” approach and signaling “special consideration” for friendly states. IAEA Denial: Iran rejected claims it granted IAEA access to damaged nuclear sites, saying inspectors only have access to Bushehr and the Tehran Research Reactor. Regional/Global Ripples: UK tightened election donation rules citing foreign influence threats including Iran; Iran also thanked India for attending the funeral, underscoring diplomatic ties.

Khamenei Funeral in Tehran: Iran’s six-day state funeral for late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is in full swing, drawing tens of thousands to mass prayers and huge crowds, with chants of “Death to America” and “Death to Israel” echoing through the Imam Khomeini Grand Mosalla. Succession Watch: Three of Khamenei’s sons appeared publicly, but successor Mojtaba Khamenei remains absent, fueling speculation about security and leadership transition. US-Iran Talks Paused: Tehran says the funeral has put diplomacy on hold, while Washington presses for Strait of Hormuz security and NATO allies to do more. Hormuz Fees & Tensions: Iran reiterates it will charge “service fees” for Hormuz transit, offering “special” treatment to friendly states, as it warns against foreign military displays. Judiciary Hardline: Supreme Leader Mojtaba reappointed hardline judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei, who threatened the US and Israel with retaliation. Regional Trade Signals: Maritime trade between Iran and Qatar has resumed after a five-month halt, and mortgage rates in the US reportedly eased as Iran tensions soften.

Khamenei Funeral in Tehran: Iran held mass funeral prayers for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at the Imam Khomeini Mosalla/Grand Mosalla complex, drawing hundreds of thousands and senior officials, with chants of “Death to America” and “Revenge.” A performer publicly called for the death of U.S. President Donald Trump, while Iran’s leadership staged the ceremonies as a show of unity and defiance. Leadership Questions: Khamenei’s successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, was notably absent, fueling speculation about his condition and security. Trump “One Shot” Row: Trump said the remaining Iranian leadership gathered at the funeral could be eliminated “in one shot,” and Iran hit back, saying ideals can’t be killed and Washington lacks “civilisation, history and honour.” US-Iran Talks: Negotiations are expected to resume in Pakistan on July 11, focusing on sanctions, frozen assets and the nuclear file, with Iran’s delegation details likely finalized after the mourning period. Hormuz & Shipping: Iran signaled it will introduce Strait of Hormuz service fees, with “friendly nations” getting preferential treatment, as the ceasefire remains fragile. Israel-UAE Link: Israel’s Iron Dome was sent to the UAE during the Iran war, with a minister confirming the transfer and interceptions.

Khamenei Funeral & Iran’s Hardline Message: Iran began a six-day state funeral for slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran, with millions expected to attend and crowds chanting “Death to America” and “Revenge,” while coffins of family members are displayed and security is tightened across the capital. US-Iran Talks on Hold, Next Round Set: The US paused nuclear negotiations during the mourning period, but reports say talks will resume in Pakistan on July 11, covering sanctions, frozen assets and the nuclear file. Hormuz Warning & Maritime Tensions: Tehran warned the Strait of Hormuz is not a “theater” for extra-regional military display and cautioned against foreign involvement, as officials and media reported ships being turned back and tankers rerouting. Regional Diplomacy & Pressure on Israel: Turkish President Erdogan said Israel must not “dynamite” the US-Iran deal, urging regional backing for peace, while Egypt called for continued momentum on the agreement. Security Crackdown: Iran said it killed two alleged terrorists and arrested ten linked to jihadist cells in Sistan and Baluchestan. International Attendance: Iran said representatives from 70+ countries joined the commemoration, including senior figures from Russia, Turkey, Pakistan and others.

Khamenei Funeral in Tehran: Iran has kicked off a six-day state mourning for late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with his coffin displayed at Imam Khomeini Mosalla as millions are expected to flood Tehran, then move to Qom and onward to Iraq before burial in Mashhad. Crowds chant “Revenge” and “Death to America,” while security and airspace restrictions tighten across key cities. Global Attendance: Senior Iranian officials and foreign leaders—including Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif, Armenia PM Nikol Pashinyan, and figures from Russia and China—attended tribute ceremonies as delegations arrive from dozens of countries. US-Iran Talks Tension: US President Donald Trump claimed Washington paused Iran talks for a week “because we’re nice,” framing Tehran as “dying to settle,” while Iran’s leadership signals it will use the funeral moment to project unity and leverage. Hormuz Warning: Iran’s deputy FM Kazem Gharibabadi warned the Strait of Hormuz is not a “military parade ground” for extra-regional powers after UK-France comments, stressing coastal-state control and warning of consequences. Regional Diplomacy: Pakistan reiterated solidarity with Iran during the mourning period, while Iran also pushed closer Tehran-Yerevan ties in talks with Armenia’s PM.